Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Rose Bowl Maps for the Pac-10

Sorry it's been awhile since our last post. Been way too hard at work. It's a shame there's no documentation or representation from us here at The Beardown for this momentous Arizona season we're in the middle of. But I've decided to give those around the Pac-10 a look at what's left and how your team can make it to the Grand Daddy of them all on New Years.

After Oregon's decimation of the Trojans at Autzen there are only two teams left writing their own tickets to Pasadena and remarkably, USC is not one of them. So let's take a look at the whole conference break down.

Oregon - With a 5-0 Pac record, if the Ducks win out they're in. Simple as that. But if the Ducks win out, the Hawkeyes drop a late game, Texas slips up in the latter half of the Big XII race Oregon will actually have a shot at the National Title game this year seeing as how Florida and Alabama will have to play each other in the Conference Championship game down the road. The Ducks are still in the driver's seat if they go 3-1 as long as that one loss isn't to Arizona. If the Ducks do lose to Arizona they will need the Cats to drop another conference game (@ USC most likely) to regain the lead in the Conference of Champions. The bottom line is all signs point to Oregon's appearance in the Rose Bowl this season. The Ducks are the only team remaining in the conference that can still lose 2 games (of their remaining 4) and still have a chance to smell the Roses. But at that point there are a lot of ifs being thrown in.

Arizona - The Cats are the only other team that can write up their own ticket to the Big Game. While the National Championship is out of their grasp, the Rose Bowl certainly is not. If not for a terrible call bad bounce in the Washington game Arizona would be much more comfortable going forward. But either way if the Cats win out it would give them a 8-1 record in Pac Play with the tie-breaker over Oregon to send them, and legions of UA Faithful to Southern California for New Years. The Cats are the only team left in the Conference that still have 5 games left of the schedule so winning out is a slightly more difficult task. Also adding difficulty is the fact that Arizona still has Cal, Oregon, USC, and a nothing to lose ASU team left on their schedule. If the Cats don't win out they will still have Roses in their grasp but it will take wins over Cal, Oregon, and USC and it will take Oregon dropping at least 2 of their remaining 4. In which case Arizona and Oregon will each have 2 losses and Arizona will hold the tiebreaker. There's always the chance that if Arizona does go 4-1 and their lone loss is to Oregon that they will play in the Rose Bowl while Oregon plays for the National Championship.

USC - For the first time in a long time USC has a lot of ground to make up to play at home on January 1st. USC has to win out, but even if they win out Oregon will still have the tie breaker. With 2 losses already in Conference Play, in order for USC to go to the Rose Bowl Oregon will need to nosedive and lose 3 of their remaining 4 games AND Arizona will have to drop an additional game beyond the USC game. While I wouldn't say it safe to count them out, they've got a long way to go. They too could benefit if Oregon wins out and Arizona drops 2 of their remaining 5 (as long as one of those losses is at the hands of USC). But that's only if Oregon does manage to make it to the National Championship Game. Something I'm sure Boise State fans would be unhappy about.

Stanford - While currently unranked the Cardinals are not completely out of the Rose Bowl picture. They've still got USC and Oregon on their schedule heading forward. If Stanford wins out they'll have a 7-2 Conference Record and the tie breakers over Oregon and USC. But they too would need Oregon to drop 2 of their remaining 4 (including their need to beat the Ducks at home this week) and they would need Arizona to lose 3 of their remaining 5. Not likely.

California - Cal currently has 2 conference losses so winning out is pretty much their only option at this point. Winning out would include giving Arizona their 2nd conference loss and possession of a Tiebreaker there and it would also give Stanford its 3rd loss effectively eliminating them from contention. But too many things are out of their hands since they already have losses to USC and Oregon. If Cal can win out they would still need USC to drop 1 game and Oregon to drop 3 of their remaining 4. Somehow I don't see that happening.

Oregon State - The Beavers are on the outside looking in right now. They already have 2 losses in the Pac at the hands of Arizona and USC. So winning out is only half of the puzzle. Similarly to Cal and Stanford, for Oregon State to go to the Rose Bowl they will need USC to drop another game and Oregon to drop 3 of 4. In their case unlike Cal and Stanford, they still have Oregon on the schedule and could give the Ducks 1 of 3 losses they need to advance.

For Arizona State and Washington there are way too many ifs for them to need in order to go to the Rose Bowl and I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona State doesn't get another win this season and Washington limps to the finish with their lone remaining win over Washington State. Washington's only chance is for a lot of things to go their way since they have Tiebreakers over Arizona AND USC.

UCLA and Washington State have both been mathematically eliminated from the Rose Bowl. UCLA would need to win out to get to ANY bowl and WAZZU has been mathematically eliminated from ALL Bowls already.

Don't be surprised if Kirk and Corso are hanging around Dirtbags or Trident in a couple weeks as that Arizona vs. Oregon Game on the 21st could very well be a major determining factor in the Pac-10 Champion. And we all remember what happened last time a highly ranked (#2) Oregon played at Arizona Stadium with the ESPN Cameras on the field.


Anonymous said...

USC won't need an Arizona loss other than to USC if they win out. Both would have two conference losses with the head to head tie breaker going to USC.

Anonymous said...

OSU wouldn't need the ducks to lose 3 of 4 if they beat the ducks. They would only need to win out and have the ducks lose twice because they would have the tiebreaker. But that won't happen. Go Ducks!

Anonymous said...

Yea that's all fine and dandy except that Arizona still has to beat Cal, Oregon, and SC. The top-three of last year, to win out.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, and that ain't gonna happen. Stoops might find a way to sneak in to the Sun Bowl, but seriously, do the Arizona fans think their ship has been completely righted, and now they are the team to beat in the PAC-10?

Mitchell said...

It should probably be more like:
The Rest.

Anonymous said...

Well the Sun Devils are out. GO DUCKS

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