...Now with 25% less Pac-10.
Week 3 is going to give us our first major shakeups of the season in The Beardown College Football Top 25 Poll. Work has been hectic today so not much analysis, just know that I should have waited until week 3 to make my Top 25 predictions since a good portion of the teams I have had in here didn't play too well yesterday. It could be worse, I could have had Michigan in my Top 25 (USA Today Coaches Poll).
1(1). USC Trojans
Number one again and not only furthering themselves from the Pac-10 but the rest of the nation as well. They have, by far, played the toughest non-conference schedule of the rest of the Top 25 (other than ECU). USC is the real deal...until they blow an easy Pac-10 game sometime later in the year (2003 - California, 2006 - Oregon State, 2007 - Stanford, 2008 - Arizona?)
2(2). Oklahoma Sooners
It may have been a lowly Pac-10 school but 55-14 is convincing in anyone's book.
3(3). Florida Gators
-Off-
4(6). Missouri Tigers
They leapfrogged AN Ohio State University and Georgia to take the up for grabs 3 spot. I don't care if it was Nevada Jeremy Maclin and Chase Daniel are just too good. Big XII play will be exciting this year.
5(5). Georgia Bulldogs
I considered moving them up with AN Ohio State University's loss, but bottom line was 14-7 over SoCar wasn't as impressive as Mizzou's Saturday performance. Unluckily for them, a Win over ASU next week won't do as much to launch their season as they may have hoped. They need the teams ahead of them to fall and spotless SEC play to make it to the Big Game.
6(7). Texas Tech Red Raiders
Maintaining, although they have put up 127 points, I expected more out of their offense against Eastern Michigan, Nevada, and Southern Methodist.
7(9). LSU Tigers
They move up due to AN Ohio State University loss and an unimpressive Auburn performance. Oh and they beat North Texas, but who cares, Play someone already.
8(10). Texas Longhorns
-Off-
9(11). Wisconsin Badgers
The new Top Big Eleven team. A nice road win at Fresno State and they make it into the Top Ten.
10(16). Brigham Young Cougars
59-0 over UCLA. Outplayed them in ever single facet of the game. That meeting with Utah at the end of the season could be the biggest game in MWC history.
11(8). Auburn Tigers
3-2 over Mississippi State. 15 of the 18 Baseball games played on Saturday had a combined higher score, the remaining three each combined for 5 points as well: 3-2 (Reds v. Backs) 3-2 (Braves v. Mets) and 5-0 (Braves v. Mets). Not impressive.
12(14). Alabama Crimson Tide
It came down to ECU and Bama right here and despite ECU's resume I gave the edge to Bama due to the most recent performance.
13(13). East Carolina Pirates
Had they played a little bit stronger against 0-2 Tulane they would have jumped to 11, but a 28-24 victory didn't impress. I think that their slipper has a short shelf life especially with the recent injury to Star Linebacker Quentin Cotton.
14(4). AN Ohio State University
10 spot slip after getting blown out by #1 team sans Heisman RB. Would Beanie have made a difference. Absolutely. Would Ohio State have won with Beanie? Absolutely Not. The Big Eleven is starting to look like the Little Eleven. When do you start Pryor if you're the vest?
15(17). Oregon Ducks
Eeking out a game against Purdue (32-26) and losing a QB sohuld be a scary sight for Oregon fans, unless 4Real is right by thinking that Masoli should be in there anyway.
16(18). Penn State Nittany Lions
They're doing what they've gotta do, we'll see how real they are come Little Eleven conference play. I'm still not sold on them just yet.
17(21). South Florida Bulls
Great game against Kansas on Friday. A solid home "upset" over an outmatched Reesing and Co. Maybe they aren't just a one-year wonder.
18(12). Kansas Jayhawks
They lost to a better South Florida team. With Conference play aroud the corner don't expect Kansas to get much higher than this without a couple of really well played games.
19(19). Clemson Tigers
Pretty run of the mill 27-9 victory over NC State.
20(20) Wake Forest Demon Deacons
-Off-
21(25). Utah Utes
Moving up a few spots, doesn't matter if it was Utah State (a bottom feeder) they looked clean and crisp. Like I said, the match-up with BYU should be the difference between a BCS bid.
22(UR). Illinois Fighting Illini
Survived a tough one against what should have been an outmanned opponent (LaLaf). That Illinois defense needs to get a fire under their Ass to have a chance at the Little Eleven title.
23(15). Arizona State Sun Devils
USC has clearly made a case for the National Championship, or at the very worst, the Rose Bowl, and Oregon having a step up on ASU, the Devils are going to need something big to happen to get back into the national spotlight. A Home game against a Georgia team that hasn't played a lot of top competition could be their only hope. Unless the same team that lost to UNLV steps on the field.
24(24). Tennessee Volunteers
-Off-
25(23). Fresno State Bulldogs
Hung in there with (now) #9 Wisconsin, lost by 3 at Home in a tough game. The Bulldogs stick in there one more week.
Outside looking in:
Florida State Seminoles, Kentucky Wildcats, Boise State Broncos, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Oklahoma State Cowboys, West Virginia Mountaineers.
As Always:
January
July
August
Week 1
Week 2
More after the jump...
Monday, September 15, 2008
College Football Top 25 Poll: Week 3....
Monday, September 8, 2008
College Football Top 25: Week 2
Another week of Football came and went and if it was a sign for this coming season, don't make plans on Saturdays. We had a lot of great games. We had another ECU upset and 3 Top 25 teams sneaking away with wins of 7 points or less. The Ohio State game was a upsetting for Buckeye fans but for College Football fans it screamed upset, and the folks at ABC were praying Ohio State could pull it out leading up to next weeks match-up with USC, which I'm sure 4Real will give you an ample preview of. There wasn't as much movement as you may have thought this week due to 6 of my Top 25 taking a week off. Just think, if Texas Tech would have lost we would have had 3 Tigers in a Row this week.
1(1). USC Trojans
Off
2(2). Oklahoma Sooners
Convincing win over Cincinnati 52-26, covering the spread handily. A lot of people thought this could be one of those surprise wins for a Big East team. Didn't happen.
3(6). Florida Gators
Up a few spots to 3 Florida looked good against Miami. A lot of people thought Miami would surprise, winning 5 in a row against the Gators but Florida held onto their athletic supremacy and who knows, maybe that whole "The U" Thing is valid.
4(3). Ohio State Buckeyes
Originally dropped them to 5th but based on the fact they were sans Beanie I couldn't drop them that far. Yeah they only beat Ohio by 12 and the game wasn't assured until the clock hit four zeros but Beanie means a lot to that team.
5(4). Georgia Bulldogs
Slipping again, after another win. Reason, my cousin went to Central Michigan and didn't know they had a football team. Georgia was at one time my number 1, they haven't played anyone yet. When they play a team in the top half of the D-1, I'll start respecting them.
6(5). Missouri Tigers
I gave Missouri a lot of credit for playing the Illini in week 1, and winning but with Florida jumping up people had to slip and much like Georgia SE Missouri State doesn't impress me. I still think Mizzou has a shot at the Big XII this year.
7(8). Texas Tech Red Raiders
Up a spot thanks to the Pirates at ECU Texas Tech is hanging out in the Top Ten though I have to say, I'm not as sure about them anymore. Their offense hasn't been as explosive and their Defense is living up to what I expected, not much. I don't see them above Texas too much longer.
8(9). Auburn Tigers
Auburn needs to tighten things up to make a serious SEC run. I like Auburn, I always think a little too highly of them though. I think it's emotional based on the shaft they got in the BCS picture a few years ago.
9(10). LSU Tigers
Postponed
10(11). Texas Longhorns
Back in the Top Ten, pretty solid win for the Horns on Saturday, then again they played UTEP so I guess there wasn't a whole lot of trouble.
11(12). Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin's offense is starting to impress me putting up 51 points. The Big Eleven is not known for such high scores and Wisconsin, though they have played subpar opponents, they have put up some scores.
12(13). Kansas Jayhawks
The Hawks shut out La Tech and put up 29 points. I still don't think Kansas has the same slippers on they did last year, but for now, they're hanging out in the Top 15.
13(UR). Eastern Carolina Pirates
I wanted to bring them into the Top 10, almost put them at 11 and 12 and when all was said and done they landed at 13. 2 wins over ranked opponents, ZERO other teams have done that thusfar. ECU could be this year's south Florida, and I know BC is happy about his Pirates. He's gotta be on the NCAA '10 wait list so he can play with his beloved Pirates.
14(15). Alabama Crimson Tide
Beat up on Tulane in a convincing way, Bama and the Sabans don't want people to give up on them. I'm still pissed at the way they screwed me week after week last year.
15(16). Arizona State Sun Devils
Up a spot. Carpenter threw for 345 yds, not too shabby, more importantly only 1 sack Saturday. It looks like that O-Line might be out to prove some people wrong.
16(14). Brigham Young Cougars
Needed a blocked PAT on a questionable celebration call to eke one out against Washington. The UCLA game next season looks to be one of the only things standing between BYU and a top Bowl Game. The other being new to the poll #25 Utah.
17(17). Oregon Ducks
It might have only been Utah State, but don't sleep on Oregon this year. No Dixon, No Stewart, I don't think the folks in Eugene are as worried as the rest of the country about those losses.
18(19). Penn State Nittany Lions
Despite off-field issues, media coverage, questions about talent and ability Penn State didn't blink at the seemingly low 15.5 spread against Oregon State and beat them, soundly 45-14.
19(18). Clemson Tigers
The 4th Tiger Team on the list, but a little farther from the brethren. Clemson was off, I don't know how long their going to be here. Their saving grace is the weak, and getting weaker ACC.
20(20). Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Speaking of the ACC, it's weak, it's unimpressive, and it's going to be a mess when Clemson, Wake, and FSU beat up on one another and they all wind up in the bottom of the Top 25, if they're lucky. Struggled against a lower SEC player
21(21). South Florida Bulls
Getting a solid scare from UCF the Bulls held on by a score and keep their spot in our Top 25
22(22). UCLA Bruins
Off
23(23). Fresno State Bulldogs
Off
24(25). Tennessee Volunteers
Off
25(UR). Utah Utes
Doubled up on UNLV and found their way from the outside looking in to the Top 25. Much like fellow MWC-er BYU the road looks pretty low key until the de-facto MWC Championship between the two teams on Nov. 22nd.
Outside looking in:
Illinois Fighting Illini, Arizona Wildcats, Kentucky Wildcats, Florida State Seminoles, California Golden Bears, Boise State Broncos
Past Top 25 Rankings;
January
July
August
Week 1
More after the jump...
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
College Football Top 25 Polls: Week 1
Yes that's right, the College Football season is off to a great start. A lot of close games on Thursday-Monday. And the UCLA over Tennesse win last night capped off a fun Week One. So as promised, each week we'll see the updated Top 25 after the dust has settled, let's take a look at the big board.
1(1). USC Trojans
Played extremely well against Virginia on the road in Week 1. Sanchez looked good, the USC ground game looked good, Joe McKnight had those flashes I talked about in the past. No reason to move them down from the Top Spot going into Week 2.
2(2). Oklahoma Sooners
As is typically the case in week one of the college football season, Oklahoma faced a nobody and put up over 50. You can pretty much set your watch by this one. Chattanooga was the victim this year and they allowed 57. Their defense threw up a big 0 on the scoreboard, their offense gave up 2 points on a safety and all is well in OK.
3(3). Ohio State Buckeyes
We'll wait to see what the prognosis is on Hesiman Hopeful Beanie's foot, hopefully he'll be in there when they head to USC. Other than that Boeckman played very well and the future looks bright for Buckeye fans behind Highly Touted recruit Terrelle Pryor. The defense, which was not a question mark for anyone, played up to their 10 returning starter potential leaving a whopping 0 on the board for Youngstown State. Another annual tradition like the Masters.
4(4). Georgia Bulldogs
The Dawgs almost slipped this week, yeah they won by 24, but they allowed Georgia Southern 21 points, luckily they were in the 2nd half so I guess up 24-0 at the half lets the defensive players get some rest. Heisman Hopefuls Stafford and Moreno surprised nobody and played very well.
5(5). Missouri Tigers
The first of the top teams to play an actual opponent this week Mizzou faced off against the Illini. One of the top games of the weekend, Illinois never gave up and looked like they were going to take strides at upsetting Mizzou tiem just ran out on Juice and crew. Missouri's offense looked good again and the special teams looked great. Led by Heisman Hopeful Jeremy Maclin and his 145 Kick return yards in 3 returns, including the 99 yard TD. He also put up a 46 yard Punt Return. I think you can give Mizzou the Big XII North Title right now.
6(6). Florida Gators
Tebow did what Tebow does (1 Passing TD, 1 Rushing TD). Best yet he was only 3rd on the team in rushing, instead of the team leader. With Percy Harvin out, Florida showed it's got some depth at athletes.
7(8). West Virginia Mountaineers
Up a spot with Clemson's loss, the Mountaineers showed that they were serious when they said Rich Who? Seeing as how Michigan dropped to Utah and the 'Neers took down 'Nova. Pat White showed that he's got an arm throwing 5 TDs in the air and making a strong push for his Heisman Case. The question mark here, and possibly for the season, will be with the Mountaineer Defense. They allowed 399 yards and 28 first downs, luckily they also grabbed two picks and were able to keep the Wildcats out of the End Zone.
8(9). Texas Tech Red Raiders
536 passing yards, 7 Total TDs. The Red Raiders outscored Eastern Washington. I still think they will win a lot of games this year to deserve this #8 ranking. I know their game plan is strictly to outscore the opponent, but allowing Eastern Washington 24 points (17 in the second Quarter) has to scare some Raiderfans.
9(10). Auburn Tigers
Ben Tate (?) ran for 115 on 13 carries and showed up to let more people know who he is. Some Auburn fans may wonder where their Tiger offense will come from this season. The Tigers accounted for 2 of their 4 TDs on offense with 1 on Special Teams and 1 on Defense. Getting TDs on D and Special Teams is great, but the Tigers need their offense to perform a bit better in the SEC to be notable too much longer.
10(11). LSU Tigers
The Tigers shut up all of the Appy State fans out there who kept saying that Armanti Edwards and the Mountaineers were worthy of notability. No fans have had bigger egos over the last year than Appalachain State. They are living on that lone victory over a down Michigan team last year. I don't typically root for LSU but I am glad they put the screws to Appy St. with a 31-0 first half score. The Tigers QB situation was THE question for the Tigers in the offseason and both inexperienced guys jumped in Saturday. All they had to do was give the ball to Scott and step away. Junior Charles Scott put up 160 yards, almost half his total from last year.
11(12). Texas Longhorns
The Horns did what they do, no surprise here. The only surprise was Texas' leading rusher...Heisman Candidate Colt McCoy. Look out Timmy.
12(14). Wisconsin Badgers
If PJ Hill can keep up as he did Saturday, there are no worries in Wisconsin. Hell if Beanie stays out awhile the Badgers can very easily slide to the top of the Big Eleven this year on the back of Hill.
13(13). Kansas Jayhawks
Picking up where they left off Reesing and the Starting O looked good putting up 30 in the first half. The defense held up great against a lesser opponent and the Hawks want us to know they're still here.
14(15). BYU Cougars
The Class of their conference BYU should remain in the perennial mid-major with 0-2 losses position all year hovering between the 10-16 spots depending on the teams surrounding them. Oh and their Quarterback, (hailing from Mesa, AZ) Max Hall, threw for 486 yards and a 198.6 QB Rating.
15(UR). Alabama Crimson Tide
I said on Friday that Bama could, and potentially would upset Clemson. I knew Saban was capable of putting up that one big upset. Now let's see if Bama can hold on unlike their collapse last year.
16(16). ASU Sun Devils
They beat NAU. Not A University. (Sorry Denny, Randle, and Craig).
17(18). Oregon Ducks
Oregon's Defense was able to put the stop on Washington's Jake Locker, hailed by many to be the top QB in the Pac-10 Locker managed 0 TDs on the ground, and 0 in the Air. The Ducks managed to gather behind their 3rd QB and still managed 44 points.
18(7) Clemson Tigers
They lost, they slipped 11 spots, they still have talent. I said on Friday that I didn't like the chances of Clemson against Bama. I knew that Clemson would drop a game they were supposed to win and Bama would have a big upset this year. This looked like the game that was going to happen in.
19(20). Penn State Nittany Lions
Paterno got career win 373 to tie Florida State's Bowden for most career wins. Good day for him and the 66-10 victory over Coastal Carolina was fun for Penn State I'm sure.
20(22). Wake Forest
Wake Forest looked crisp and clean and didn't allow Baylor to do much, as their D came up with 2 picks. Riley Skinner threw for 220 and 3 TDs. The only ranked ACC team with a win this past weekend.
21(23). South Florida
Top team in the Big East this year and their offense put up 56 points. 2 of their 3 QBs combined for 10/12 and 182 yards with 2 TDs but the amazing thing was the 13 players who were credited with a carry in Saturday's game. I guess that accounts for the 300 yards the Bulls got on the ground.
22(UR). UCLA Bruins
Upset the Volunteers last night in a great game and shot up the Rankings. They were on the outside looking in last week, but were on my teams to watch list. After last night they are on the inside. The Pac-10 looks strong this year.
23(25). Fresno State
The Bulldogs and the Scarlett Knights were scoreless through the first half but the second half was all Fresno State and specifically Ryan Matthews who ran for 3 TDs and 188 yds in the 2nd Half.
24(UR) South Carolina Gamecocks
Back in my Top 25 for the first time since July. Tommy Beecher started the game, and was promptly removed after 4 INTs. With this morning's news that Chris Smelley takes over South Carolina comes into the Top 25 and could stay awhile.
25(17) Tennessee Volunteers
They lost last night, but it was a great game and they're still a good team, just not as good as we thought before.
On the Edge Boise State Broncos, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Arizona Wildcats, Kentucky Wildcats, Florida State Seminoles, Utah Utes, and California Golden Bears.
Past Top 25 Rankings;
January
July
August
More after the jump...
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
UPDATED: College Football Top 25 Preseason Rankings
About a month ago I dropped upon thee my Revamped Top 25, the second in a series of my College Football Top 25s. Of course The Original Top 25 came back in January when we didn't know too much about the 2008 College Football season, but my second round of picks weren't too much different than my first round. Well I promised you all that I would continue to update my Top 25 up until and throughout the season. I should preface this by saying that this is my personal opinion and I will tell you why. The season hasn't started yet and as we've seen in year's past, specifically last year, things WILL change so don't be upset if I put your team 3 spots lower than you think they belong. As of right now this is my prediction of the way the Top 25 will look at season's end. Upsets will happen, injuries will happen, and this list will change, every Monday, during the football season.
The team's rank in this updated Top 25 will appear at the left of the Team name, as well as past rankings in my BearDown Top 25 lists.
1. USC Trojans [2 (last ranking) 3 (first ranking)]
In a slow but steady pace the Men of Troy have taken over the Top Spot. Before all you SEC honks get on my case think about this. You all constantly argue that your conference is the toughest conference so don't be pissed when I think that USC has a pretty damn decent shot at going undefeated this year and I can't say the same thing about ANY of the SEC teams. Georgia, Florida, LSU, everyone, WILL LOSE, flat out. I think USC is the best team in the Pac and if they can get past Ohio State, which they will since it's at home, and they can run through the Pac. Don't expect them to falter again this year like they did against Stanford.
2. Oklahoma Sooners [1, 2]
Slipping back to where they started Oklahoma locks in at Number 2. The Big XII is better this year than last year but Oklahoma's toughest games are going to be in Norman (except the Red River Shootout in Dallas). Oklahoma could very easily slip early and often but I think too highly of Sam Bradford. Each week is going to be tough for Oklahoma but I think Bob will be able to keep them on task, at least until they lose the bowl game.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes [4, 5]
Continuing their ascent up the polls Ohio State looks better and better to me. They've got too much returning talent in a weak Big Eleven. As usual they have their marquee match up against Youngstown State but have bulked up their non conference with the addition of USC on the road. I think this will be one of the top games of the season. On the road the Buckeyes are going to have an uphill battle. On the plus side though, overcoming a loss and moving back up into the top 3 is a lot easier earlier in the season than later.
4. Georgia Bulldogs [3, 1]
Continuing their descent Georgia is the best team in the country. They have top tier talent at many different positions. Stafford and Moreno are both Heisman Caliber. So why aren't they number 1 or 3 anymore. Their media guide should say "8 in 08" based on the fact that they continue to have players getting into off-field troubles. Teams have a hard time focusing around that atmosphere. Plus who knows how many players are going to wind up missing games due to suspensions or possibly jail time. Plus the SEC is the best conference and getting out of their tough schedule with less than 2 losses just doesn't seem probable. They're lucky that they're one of only a few SEC teams that have a returning QB.
5. Missouri Tigers [6, 6]
Chase Daniel and Co. have finally gotten out of the seemingly concrete 6 spot of the past 2 rankings and have moved up to 5. Huge first game against Illinois will set the tone for their season. Their toughest games will be Texas on the road and Kansas at home to end the season. I think they can get through their schedule relatively pain free. This is a very similar team to the one that was in NC contention late last season and Daniel is a year better.
6. Florida Gators [5, 4]
Florida's good. Tebow's good. Harvin's good. The SEC's good. Georgia's better. Florida will be in the Top 5 at some point during the season but after their late season loss to Georgia at the Cocktail Party the Gators will slip to 6. The opposite of Ohio State will affect the Gators here. The Gators big loss will be at the end of the season rather than the beginning.
7. Clemson Tigers [10, 7]
Sticking around at 7 Clemson should be happy. They're the best in the ACC and they will be pretty unscathed after their schedule run. The early match up against Bama should be good, their only hiccups might be coming with both Wake and Florida State games being on the road. Clemson will probably only have 1 loss, maybe 2 but 1 loss in the ACC isn't as good as 2 losses in other conferences.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers [9, 8]
Your Welcome Mountaineerfans, because of your constant berating of my rankings I have decided to listen to you and rank West Virginia higher than I think they deserve. Which means sticking around at 8. They aren't as good as you think, but they could very well be Top 10 and are the class of the Big East. They won the BCS game against Oklahoma last year and surprised everyone, you're right. Bill Stewart hasn't proven anything yet and Noel Devine, despite the constant commenting of Mountaineer fans in ALL CAPS, is not the second coming of Barry Sanders or Bo Jackson. He's good. They will be the best in the Big East (which yes is a second tier conference) but will lose to one of their Big East counterparts and Auburn. The South Florida game at the end of the season will probably be the conference championship game.
9. Texas Tech Red Raiders [10, 13]
Moving up yet another spot Texas Tech holds a single digit rank in the Top 10, chances are by season's end the success will cripple the Red Raiders deep in Conference Play, but as of right now welcome to number 9. That offense is just too good to not be in the Top 10. Playing Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma in 3 of 4 weeks will prove to be the real test for this Red Raider team. Going 3-0 against those teams and I'll probably be chanting for a shot at the National Championship berth.
10. Auburn Tigers [9, 11]
Hanging out in the Top 10 the Tigers hold the final spot. Auburn's place in the SEC this year will be the official conference spoiler. Getting almost all of their toughest conference games at home they could prove to be the ones that hold Georgia, LSU, or really any other SEC team they face out of the National Championship game. Playing West Virginia on the road should prove to be one of the top games of that week.
11. LSU Tigers [13, 7]
Up a couple spots LSU moves closer to the Top Ten. Now since the AP has them in there at #6 it is guaranteed that LSU fans will be all over me for not having LSU higher. After 3 games LSU will be 3-0 and probably in the Top 5 in the AP, yet most likely won't be any higher than 9th in my book. I understand the SEC is a tough conference but Appy State, Troy, and North Texas for the returning champs is kinda pathetic. Come the end of the season they will have at least 3 losses since this is not the same LSU team. They were depleted by the draft and the incoming Quarterback is now playing at Jacksonville State. They won't be in the Top Ten come season's end and they'll be happy to accept their Chik-Fil-A or Outback Bowl invitation.
12. Texas Longhorns [11, 8]
Down a spot due to the rise of the Tigers the Horns will be one of the top teams to watch this season. This will be a make or break season for Mack Brown and Colt McCoy. Texas is no longer the top team in the Big XII and this year they have to go on the road against Kansas and Texas Tech which are two teams that could beat them. The Big XII is full of talent and Texas is going to come up short of Oklahoma and Tech in the South.
13. Kansas Jayhawks [12, 14]
Jayhawks slide along with the Horns with LSU's rise. I've got to say I thought Kansas was overrated last season since they had Duke Coach Mike Krizooski plan their schedule and they played a handful of High School teams, but their bowl game win was enough for me to believe in Kansas a little bit more. As opposed to last year's cake walk through the easy Big XII schedule they will be playing the tougher conference slate this year. They've got Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, and Missouri this year as well as a South Florida team on the road. Jayhawks will most likely slide out of the Top 20 at some point during the season, but they've still got enough talent and should pile up enough wins to finish the season in the Top 25.
14. Wisconsin Badgers [14, 12]
Settling in at 14 again the Badgers look to be more like the 2006 Badgers that finished #7 in the AP poll than the 2007 team that underachieved and finished at #24. Quite different than a few years ago, number 2 in the Big Eleven doesn't hold a whole lot of water anymore. Wisconsin should have a pretty flawless season. They've got most of their biggest games at home this year which should alleviate the pressure but going Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Illinois in a 5 game span will most likely wear down the Badgers and give them 2 losses. The last 3 games of the season should give Wisconsin 3 wins and bring them back into the Top 20 and maybe the Top 15.
15. BYU Cougars [15, 18]
If they played in another conference I believe they would be at least a little higher, but as we've seen in years past mid-majors don't get enough credit. They've continued their practice of scheduling Pac-10 teams to boost their non conference schedule, but Washington and UCLA aren't the top powers in the Pac-10. TCU on the road and ending the season and Utah will be what stands between BYU and a BCS game. Wins in both of those and BYU could be looking at 1 or less losses on the season and this could be their best year yet.
16. ASU Sun Devils [16, 16]
Unable to move an inch I just can't see ASU moving any higher. ASU still ahs serious questions on the offensive line and lost members of the line that allowed 55 sacks last season, of course some of those sacks were due to Rudy Carpenter holding onto the ball too long. If something doesn't change Carpenter could very easily go down for the season and ASU will be mediocre at best. USC is the best in the Pac and everyone else in the conference is going to be bunched in two groups the couple losses (ASU, Oregon, Arizona, Cal) and the lotta losses (Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, and Washington State). Because of all that and ASU's early season loss to Georgia, getting into the Top 15 doesn't seem too likely.
17. Tennessee Volunteers [18, 21]
The only question in Volunteer camp is the defense. Crompton and Foster will hold together that offense this season just fine. They just can't outscore people every game and last season allowing 23 Points Per needs to drop this season. If they can't get that down below 20 they aren't going to be able to fulfil the promise that they have. Back to back to back games against Florida, at Auburn, and at Georgia will be at best a 1-2 record, hopefully they'll be able to rebound. The last 3 games could wind up being enough to get Tennesse back into the Top 25 since they could slip out after the tough 3 game set against Florida, Auburn, and Georgia.
18. Oregon Ducks [19, 17]
Up a spot from the last set, Oregon faces the same things that ASU does in the Pac. There are different questions but this is still a talented team without Dixon and Steward. The return of Jeremiah Johnson is huge. They don't have to face Georgia early like ASU, but I think they'll drop at least one more in conference play which will have them sitting a few spots below the Devils.
19. Virgina Tech Hokies [17, 15]
I find myself questioning them more and more each time. Again slipping 2 spots the Hokies I don't think they are a Top 25 team, talent wise, but have one of the easiest schedules in the NCAA which should be enough to keep them in the Top 20. They drew the easier ACC schedule and will avoid Wake and Clemson with their only real test being against the unranked Noles of FSU. They could find themselves in the Top 10 capitalizing on a schedule and some talent like Kansas did last year. Despite the fact the ACC is a second class conference being 10-2 at seasons end will mean a top ranked Hokie team (that won't look too great in a bowl game).
20. Penn State Nittany Lions [20, 19]
I know, I know you're sick of it but it comes down to schedules. You can go ahead and thank the BCS Honks for that. No one schedules good games anymore because 12-0 against terrible teams gets you into a BCS game. They'll probably slip out of the Top 25 if they can't get at least one road win between Wisconsin and Ohio State. But starting the season 4-0 will keep Penn State in the Top 25 and the weak bottom half of the Big Eleven almost guaranteeing 9 wins on the season. 9 wins in a major conference will usually keep you in the Top 25. Penn State finished at 25 last year with a 9-4 record and 2008 will likely be a very similar year.
21. Illinois Fighting Illini [21, 20]
Week one will set the tone for the Illini and Zook this season. a victory over Mizzou will be HUGE in setting up the Illini for another big run. Chances are they aren't headed to the Rose again this year. They are looking at a 3rd place ceiling in the Big Eleven, but more than likely will finish 4th. Their road game to Penn State most likely will end in a loss and be the tie breaker between them and Penn State in the Big Eleven standings. Both should finish with 9 wins. 2009 is a better year for the Illini as long as Juice sticks around.
22. Wake Forest Demon Deacons [22, UR]
This is basically because I see them being the 3rd best team in the ACC and the ACC having three teams in the Top 25. The conference is so bad that there are 4 teams who could wind up with 2 or less wins, and I'm talking overall not just in conference. That just means wins will stack up for the top of the ACC. With a clear distinction between the top 4 ACC teams (Clemson, Va Tech, Wake, and Florida State) and the rest of the teams this will be the definition of the rich and the poor and no middle class. Thought North Carolina might surprise people and be the only middle class team.
23. South Florida Bulls [UR. UR]
Making their first appearance strictly on the strength of the Big East needing a second team. South Florida scheduled Kansas and Pitt to give them a little bit of cred going into the soft conference schedule. Look for at least 9 wins this season. Don't expect to see them at #2 again this year. The November 15th game against Rutgers should be a nice revenge game for the Bulls holding a grudge since Rutgers knocked them out of the #2 spot and sent the spiraling into a 3 game skid.
24. Pittsburgh Panthers [25, UR]
LeSean McCoy is the reason Pitt is being considered this high. Pitt only needs to show up for 4 games this season. South Florida, Notre Dame, West Virginia, and (insert typical surprising Big East team here). Winning at least 2 of those games should keep Pitt in voters minds enough to grab one of the bottom 3 spots.
25. Fresno State Bulldogs [23, 25]
Back where they began the Bulldogs did nothing in my mind to slip, but they still did. This year's WAC entrant. The Wac has made a name for themselves recently by having their one team continuing to make noise. First Boise State, then Hawaii, not Fresno State. The Dogs won't be as dominating as either of the previous team so we won't hear BCS talk with them as we did in years past. Losses against Wisconsin and one of UCLA/Rutgers/Hawaii will keep Fresno State in the bottom 5, but ranked nonetheless.
Teams that most likely will see the Top 25 at some point during the season:
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Too Easy of a schedule not to be included, at least at 25, once during the season, should wind up bowl eligible. Only 4-5 real contests during the season.
Michigan Wolverines - They play in the Big Eleven and should have more than a few conference wins to make a run at the Top 25.
Alabama Crimson Tide - A couple of possible big SEC wins and Bama will shoot into the Top 25.
Florida State Seminoles - The ACC is weak and an early win over Wake would move the Noles into contention until the tougher back end of the season
South Carolina Gamecocks - This is my first 25 without the Gamecocks represented, I'm sure that they will make their way back into talks at some point before the season wraps up.
California Bears - Cal could definitely replace either ASU or Oregon and make their way into the Top 25 for a week or two.
Arizona Wildcats - The Spread will be running at full speed this year. With a full year under their belt, talented Senior Leadership, and a 3 game buffer and honest chance to start the season 6-0 Arizona should see the Top 25 at one point early in the season.
More after the jump...
Monday, July 7, 2008
2008 College Football Preseason Top 25 ver. 2.0
*This has been updated! Click the "Top 25" Link to see the most recent Top 25 Posts*
Ok we're looking at T Minus 53 days until my beloved Kitty Kats kick off against Idaho at Arizona Stadium, 51 days until the official kickoff to the College Football season. The best 4 and a half months of the year. The fact that we continue to cover and discuss College Football through February and begin preseason coverage starting in June, breaking that down to 9 months of coverage here on The BearDown, you better believe we're counting down the days until late August. I can smell Corso's Aqua Velva already. I can't wait for Herbstreit's dead accurate crazy upset predictions. So as promised last week in my Conference by Conference breakdown I would deliver my Re-Vamped Top 25 list this week.
If you would like to, you may refer to my Original Top 25, published in January. This 2008 College Football preseason rankings of the Top 25 will be updated again a few more times going into the season, and Every Monday during the season. The first number is their BearDown rank (According to me), the number in the parenthesis is their old rank (in January). There is also a mention of schedule hurdles they need to overcome and a list of All-Americans on their roster, according to The Beardown All-Americans
1. (2) Oklahoma Sooners
Moving up a spot in my book Oklahoma sits atop this board. I'm putting a lot of faith in a True Sophomore if I'm one of the Norman faithful. Sam Bradford was great last season. He rarely, very rarely showed any signs of being a True Freshman taking his first snaps. Especially with the pressure of being a True Freshman starter for Oklahoma. Oklahoma quarterbacks are not typically known as passing leaders but Bradford put up monster numbers last year (3,121 yards, 36 TDs). The loss of receiver Malcolm Kelly (49 Rec. 821 yds, 9 TDs) won't be easy for the Sooners, but they may be able to recover. But team leader, Juaquin Iglesias, in yards and receptions will be Bradford's target once again and Redshirt Freshman Tyler Stradford hopes to deliver as Kelly's replacement. Quentin Chaney made a showing the Fiesta Bowl so perhaps he will be able to make a name for himself in his Senior Year. Outstanding TE Jermaine Greshman will also be an offensive threat. The Sooner Offensive Line is strong, as usual, and there are 5 Sooners on the Bednarik Award Watch List. The Award given to the outstanding defensive player. Bob's Troops are typically pretty damn strong defensively. The only real thing standing between OK and the BCS Championship is Oklahoma's recent Bowl Record (4-5 under Stoops, 1-4 in the last 5).
Schedule Hurdles: September 6 Home vs. Cincinnati could be a hiccup and then of course the Texas game in early October (Dallas). They will also get Texas Tech and Kansas at home this year.
BearDown All-Americans: OT Phil Loadholt, OG Duke Robinson, DB Nic Harris, QB Sam Bradford, TE Jermaine Gresham, DE Auston English.
2. (3) USC Trojans
Also moving up a spot in the recent Top 25 breakdown are the Men of Troy. Mark Sanchez looks to have the nod of Coach Carroll heading into the season, but competent and capable Mitch Mustain will be right there. Now as we all know 10 Trojans were drafted a couple months ago. 2 of which were starting Offensive Linemen and USC lost 2 other Offensive Linemen who went undrafted. In retrospect, the Offensive Line injuries they suffered last year were a blessing in disguise because the guys stepping in this year have game experience which is the only kind that matters on the line. There are some big cleats to fill there but as we have seen over the last decade USC has talent to spare. Early miscommunications on the line might lead to a few extra sacks and a rough start to the season for their RB core, but hopefully, for their sake, they can get all of those issues out of the way in the Virgina game and the next two weeks of practice before the Ohio State game. Joe McKnight is a freak and will be able to produce in the SC backfield and there are many other Running Backs ready for competition. The USC RB situation is never in doubt. If one of them can't handle it, one of the other 29 5-Star recruits will be able to step in. Really trying to do a position by position breakdown for USC is pointless because they are always a top recruiter. Guys go there knowing their going to sit on the bench for two years to explode and win Awards in their Junior or Senior year. TE Fred Davis is gone, but there are two young talents battling for the job who would start anywhere else. They lost 5 starters on their defense and might be better off this year, which is hard to say.
Schedule Hurdles: Day 1 - January is basically a Schedule Hurdle. SC in my mind is playing one of, if not, the toughest schedule of anyone. They start @ Virginia, then Home for Ohio State followed by the next 7 games of Conference play present some challenges including Saturday October 25 in Tucson. Homecoming for Arizona. If you are unaware of my stance on playing the Kitty Kats at homecoming read this, (I was subsequently right of course) as well as look at the picture on the right side of the screen UA 52 UCLA 14 from a couple years ago, yet another homecoming upset. It's what we do, we dismantle top teams in October and then rush the field. Sorry, got off track there. USC will play one of the toughest schedules, and holding out against these top teams, and NOT losing the Stanford should put USC in the Top 2 going into the BCS Championship Game.
BearDown All-Americans: DT Fili Moala, DB Taylor Mays, RB Joe McKnight, LB Brian Cushing, LB Rey Maualuga, DB Kevin Ellison.
3. (1) Georgia Bulldogs
My Opening Number 1 team is down 2 spots, Georgia is Free Fallin'. Reason number 1 for their slippage, off-field issues. I still think they are the top team I still think everything I said before is dead on, "Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno are top 10 Heisman Candidates in my book and look to cause some serious damage to opposing teams. And their Defense? They held a Hawaii team that averaged 46.16 PPG to only 10 pts, 7 of which coming late in the 4th quarter by a (keep a look out for this kid next year) Tyler Graunke TD pass. If they can stay healthy and avoid some of the offensive stalls (S. Carolina game last year Stafford was 19/44 passing) they are looking at the title game." It's all still true. Flat out they are the best team in the country STILL going into the 2008 season, the problem is, half of their team might be in jail or on probation. Plus constant media attention and questions might mess with these 18-21 year old minds and get them off track. If they stay on track, stay out of jail, and (as mentioned above) avoid any offensive stalls in production, they will be in the Title Game. They've got the talent.
Schedule Hurdles: September 20 at Arizona State will be the first major test, both should be unbeaten when they meet in Tempe. Then of course the late season SEC match-ups at LSU and Auburn, Home against Tennessee and the Cocktail Party in Jacksonville vs. Florida. We'll see pretty early on just how good this team is and if they'll have enough to win it all.
BearDown All-Americans: RB Knowshon Moreno, LB Dannell Ellerbee.
4. (5) Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes have been to the last two BCS Championship games and has walked away with a pair of beat downs. Ohio State's success has been predicated on a strong defense. It hurt to lose Vernon Gholston to the draft but keeping Laurinaitis is like the prize at the bottom of the cereal. The '06 Nagurski Trophy winner and '07 Butkus Award winner is a monster, or should I say, and Animal. Sorry, I can't help it. If you don't get the joke, google it. The defense will continue to be strong and Ohio State is quickly becoming Linebacker U. On the other side of the ball Boeckman and Beanie are on the Bronze Stiff Arm watch list, and there are a couple of nice receiving targets for Boeckman in WRs Robiskie and Hartline. They lost to Florida and were focused on making it back to the BCS Championship when they weren't supposed to. They had the drive to get there again but couldn't get past LSU. If losing once was enough to push them back again, then losing twice might be enough to get them over the 2 year hump.
Schedule Hurdles: OSU will not only be playing USC but it will be at the Memorial Coliseum on September 13. They will follow that up with a trip back to the Horseshoe to play the Trojans again, but this time the Trojans of Troy who had a moderately successful 2007 8-4 run, with a Bowl loss to FAU. As for Big Eleven play they'll sidestep Wisconisin but they will go on the road to Champaign to try and avenge the loss to the Illini last year. They will also be at home against Penn State and Michigan.
BearDown All-Americans: LB James Laurinaitis, DB Malcolm Jenkins, RB Chris “Beanie” Wells, WR Brian Robiskie, LB Marcus Freeman, DB Rashad Johnson.
5. (4) Florida Gators
When he's not circumcising kids in foreign countries Double D-Bow is throwing and running Touchdowns. All season long the question will be there, constantly. Can he...Will he? Is it possible to win back to back BSA's. He already was the first Sophomore to take one home so breaking long standing traditions isn't out of the realm of possibility for this guy. Really the only problem facing the problem is if Timmy Boy goes down with an injury. Having a dual threat like that is great, until they get injured and you lose your leading passer and rusher. WR Percy Harvin is ready to turn some heads and he'll be in contention for the pose award. Former Trojan RB Emmanuel Moody will be stepping in there to help out the leading Florida Rushing tandem of the aforementioned QB and WR. They return most of their starting defense, most of which (9) were first year starters. They will be solid. The World's Largest Cocktail Party in J-Ville will most likely determine one of the National Champion participants.
Schedule Hurdles: The test for their Defense will come in week one vs. Hawaii, just because they lost Jones and Brennan, don't count out Hawaii, Tucson Bred Graunke put up 10 TDs as a back-up last season. They get LSU and S. Carolina at home but travel to Tennessee and of course the World's Largest Cocktail party in J-Ville vs. GA, as mentioned before, will be the true test of their season.
BearDown All-Americans: LB Brandon Spikes, PR Brandon James, QB Tim Tebow, WR Percy Harvin.
6. (6) Missouri Tigers
The first of 3 teams that didn't move an inch, despite all movement surrounding them. The Double D attack of Daniel and Derrick Washington will have to make this a strong offensive team heading into '08. They'll have to make up for the loss of Offensive threat Tony Temple. Mizzou has Maclin, and I don't want to see Tigerfan holding that sign up on ESPN next season. That's straight BD Copyright. Jeremy Maclin is a stud and will make a big splash this season. Daniel Washington, and Maclin will be a force to be reckoned with. Their defense aint too shabby and they will have their work cut out for them as they're going to have to hold back the Sooners and Texas Tech's Offensive outbursts. They were in the running until the Big XII Championship last year and haven't lost a whole lot other than Temple and TE Martin Rucker. TE Chase Coffman should be at the very least an adequate replacement for Rucker. He should put up some solid numbers and could very possibly eclipse Mr. Rucker.
Schedule Hurdles: Ready to make a run from day one Mizzou plays host to Illinois in most likely the most competitive week one match-up we'll see in '08. Their Big XII schedule is pretty weak, other than a road trip to Texas and the neutral site Border Showdown with Kansas, which could allow for another trip to the Big XII Championship and a BCS bid, which they narrowly missed out on last year.
BearDown All-Americans: QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, DB William Moore, TE Chase Coffman.
7. (10) Clemson Tigers
The best the ACC has to offer, by far is Clemson. And before I get into this I, still holding a grudge against the Moron Clemson fan from the last post, would like to point out, once again Clemson is in my Top Ten, in fact they have moved up to Number 7. So please don't comment on the bottom that,
"Anonymous said... This is awful. you dont even have clemson in the top 25 when they are returning 15 starters and have the number 2 recruiting class in the nation. Not to mention having a tandem of FOUR top 10 RB recruits. In addition Cullen Harper will have his name in the heisman running this year. Check your facts next time."
Way to capitalize the word FOUR but not clemson or heisman. Anyhow please read before commenting, especially when I had them in the Top Ten and the reasons you mentioned were the exact same reasons I had them in the Top Ten. As I said before Tommy Bowden has improved the Tigers over the past couple years and they have an outside shot at the BCS Championship. If only they played in a major conference. Regardless expect to see them in the Top Ten all season and depending on things fall above them, they could be in contention. Most of their Offensive weapons will be back, but most of their offensive line will not. That looks to be a serious spot for concern. It looks like most of the defensive starters will be back for '08 as well. And Top Recruit 5 Star DeQuan Bowers should make an immediate impact on the Defensive Line, plus he's a December Graduate which means he will have Spring Ball to learn a lot of the Defense. It's still early for some recruits but this is definitely one of the top recruiting classes in the country. 2008 will be a good year for Clemson, 2009 might be THE year for the Tigers. But I'll check my facts next time, and yes I'm running this into the ground. I have mentioned this idiot who can't read in multiple posts, and will continue to do so until I get an apology for him reading Number One, NOT seeing Clemson and berating me for "skipping" Clemson in my Top 25.
Schedule Hurdles: There aren't many hurdles to overcome but S. Carolina at the end of November has potential as a good late season match-up, but the Tigers look to be the cream of the ACC crop. They'll have to go against Virginia, Florida State, and Wake which won't be easy victories but Clemson should be able to walkaway with the W in all of those.
BearDown All-American: DE Ricky Sapp.
8. (9) West Virginia Mountaineers
Depending on how much media attention is placed on the lack of Rich Rodriguez in Morgantown will be something we need to see develop. They beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl right after the loss of Rodriguez so it looks like Bill Stewart will be able to keep the players in line despite media attention. They look to rebound and have another BCS potential year with the return of White and Noel Devine. The only 3 reasons they aren't a little bit higher is that they were successful last year under RichRod's Spread offense, they lost Steve Slaton, and they lost leading receiver Darius Raynaud. We also still have to see what Stewart will do with the reigns and if the Spread will remain. The Big East won't be as competitive as it was last year and the Mountaineers should be at the top come December.
Schedule Hurdles: Auburn in week one will be a daunting task, in fact THE Task and the difference between starting the season in the Top 15 and ending the season in the Top 15. A win almost ensures a bowl game since the rest of the schedule is rather soft and the only other hiccups are the rest of the Big East which, as I mentioned, WV looks to be distancing itself from the pack.
BearDown All-Americans: RB Noel Devine, OG Greg Isdaner, OL Ryan Stanchek.
9. (11) Auburn Tigers
The third best Tiger Team on this list, but not the last, moves up a couple spots in Version 2.0. The 8-4 record should definitely improve this year, especially with the promising OT victory over Clemson last season. The number one question Tigerfans are looking at right now is whether Kodi (with a K) Burns can step in for QB Brandon Cox this year. Burns is more mobile and doesn't have the history of poor decisions that Cox had (13 INTs). But he is relatively unproven and young. The rest of their offensive weapons (Tate, Lester, Smith, and Billings) will be back to make things easier on Burns. The other major change in the Tiger program was the pilfering of their coaching staff, both coordinators have left Auburn, but Auburn brought in Troy's Tony Franklin to install the Spread which should be beneficial to Burns and the quick attack of Auburn's offense.
Schedule Hurdles: Week One starts the uphill battle on the Road in Morgantown and the rest of September doesn't look much easier though they are playing host to LSU and Tennessee. Wins in those games could mean that the November 15 game, again at home, versus Georgia could be one of the best games of 2008. The Tigers have one of the toughest schedules but Jordan Hare Stadium will be rocking with all of the solid home games. If home field advantage holds true, Auburn's got a shot.
BearDown All-Americans: DT Sen’Derrick Marks, P Ryan Shoemaker.
10. (13) Texas Tech Red Raiders
I'll be the first to admit, I don't know what the hell to expect from TTech. At 10 I think their too high and too low. Are they really the 2nd best in the Big XII South? Is Texas Tech really better than Texas? It seems so wrong to me, but their offense is just too good to rank outside of the Top Ten. It's gaudy and it makes the Turn of the Century Rams "Greatest Show on Turf" look like they were running the Wishbone. When you're putting up 31 points a game and it's your LOWEST production get outta here. They put up 40 points in 75% of their games. Graham Harrell's back and Michael Crabtree is, well look him up. All 5 Starting Linemen return (only allowed 16 sacks), RB Shannon Woods is back. They have a defense too, 8 of 11 starters will be back. No Offense to their D, I'm a Defense fan, but no one in Lubbock knows any of their names so I don't bother either. It's not even that they're subpar in any way, they're good, but as long as they can limit the opposition to under 30 points it should be a Win.
Schedule Hurdles: Late season Big XII contests look to be in the way going to Kansas in October, hosting Texas the following week, and heading to Oklahoma on the 15th of November.
BearDown All-Americans: WR: Michael Crabtree. (Harrell is on the BSA Watch List, but he didn't make the All-American list due to only 4 spots available.)
11. (8) Texas Longhorns
They slipped a little bit. Not because of anything they have or haven't done over the last 6 months, it's just that second thoughts on WVU, Aub, and TTech made them move up a bit. I still think that Colt McCoy is a born and bred Texas Quarterback. He's had moments of greatness, but this year needs to be his coming out party. Colt's turnovers, 18 INT in 2007 and 4 Fumbles in the Holiday Bowl (1 lost, 1 converted into a TX TD) are becoming a problem in Austin that needs to be resolved for success. Bottom Line, that's the reason they're number 11 and not higher. I'm a Mack Brown guy, part of me wants Texas to flop this season and see him on his way out the door, Arizona would jump on him in a second if Stoops can't get his troops in line this year. This season for Texas is on McCoy's shoulders 100%, it's that simple this team will live and die with their QB even more than they did when Vince Young beat USC for the Championship. The schedule hurdles they face this year are going to be huge in an even more competitive Big XII than other recent years. (4 in the Top 11).
Schedule Hurdles: Oct.11 Texas meets Oklahoma in Dallas for the Red River Shootout. A win there catapults this team into the driver's seat in the Big XII but tough road tests against Texas Tech and Kansas could end BCS chances in November.
BearDown All-Americans: Zero, but the Teams' success, as mentioned above, will lie with Colt. A Heisman candidate worthy season will catapult him to All-American Status.
12. (14) Kansas Jayhawks
A Surprise to many last year, apparently Kansas has a football team in addition to a basketball team. Many of us were unaware. Under Head Coach Mark Mangino the Jayhawks had Huge Success last season and look to continue the streak of Big XII annoyance to the traditional powers. They finished the season with 1 loss and took Coach Mangino from a 25-35 career record at KU to 37-36. It appears, to me at least, that Kansas will fall out of National Championship Contention due to Oklahoma, Missouri, and the Texas schools looking so powerful, but Kansas won't go away and could definitely avenge their loss to Mizzou last season (which took them out of National Championship Contention) and be playing for the Crystal Football. What's the downside to Kansas? One of the weakest schedules in the history of sport. It made Duke Basketball's nonconference schedule look like Arizona's. Then of course when they beat VTech in the Orange Bowl, many people were shocked and realized, maybe they really were for real. Reesing (33 TD 7 INT) is returning and has garnered some national attention, they also return 9 of 11 defensive starters.
Schedule Hurdles: Chances are they are heading into conference play with a nice record and a number next to their name. Their non-conference doesn't get much harder than last season but they will be playing at South Florida in Mid-September. They also drew the tough road through the Big XII this year having to visit Oklahoma and end the season with back to back home games against Texas and Mizzou after last season's easier Big XII schedule.
BearDown All-American: QB Todd Reesing.
13. (7) LSU Tigers
The biggest fall of the Top 25 thus far, LSU. Why? Gone on Offense: Flynn, Doucet, Hester, and now Perriloux. Gone on Defense: Highsmith, Dorsey, and Steltz. Gone in the Booth: Bo Pelini LSU is LSU and is the only multiple BCS Champion of the last 10 years. LSU is good and the SEC is so muddled but Georgia, Florida, and Auburn will shine above the others in the SEC, but the media bias surrounding the SEC should put LSU in the Top 25 for the first part of the season. There are too many holes to fill for LSU to have a decent shot at the Title game, and most likely they won't venture inside of the Top Ten too often.
Schedule Hurdles: The Tigers face Troy in week 2 but it shouldn't be too difficult. The month of October could be a lot to overcome for these guys though going on the road to Florida and South Carolina and then seeing Georgia in Baton Rouge. If they make it through that 3 game stretch without a loss, they could definitely be looking at a top BCS game and the SEC championship, chances are they aren't going to make it through the SEC without at least 2 losses.
BearDown All-Americans: WR Demetrius Byrd, DE Tyson Jackson.
14. (12) Wisconsin Badgers
No fault of their own, Wisconsin has slipped 2 spots. Why? Because Kansas and Texas Tech made a believer out of me, and the Big Eleven isn't going to get the same media cred of the Big XII and SEC. P.J. Hill will shoulder the load for the Badgers and he's shown in the past that if he can stay healthy, he can do that. They've got a TE, Beckum, with back to back 900+ yd seasons. and transfer QB Allan Evridge could make an immediate impact. They, like Texas Tech, are going to rely on outscoring other teams, especially once Big Eleven play rolls around. Their offense isn't a powerful though which is why they will drop a couple games where they're outscored. Allowing, on average, 21+ PPG is not common of a Top 25 team.
Schedule Hurdles: An early match-up with Fresno State is crying out for Fresno to have their first big win of the season and Wisconsin needs to hold up to have a successful 2008. Playing Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Illinois in a 5 week span doesn't bode well for a team new to the pressure of Top 25, but luckily the only traveling they'll do is to subpar Michigan during that stretch.
BearDown All-Americans: TE Travis Beckum, PR David Gilreath, RB P.J. Hill.
15. (18) BYU Cougars
Moving up 3 spots BYU making the first appearance of a mid-major. The pride of the Mountain West Conference BYU has been hovering the last couple years. They've been overlooked by many but they're starting to get their name out there. After back to back double digit win seasons and bowl berths they are ready to get some recognition from the opening whistle, not week 9. The defense took a minor hit but remarkably the offense will remain almost perfectly in tact. Losing near verbal commit ILB Uona Kaveinga to USC hurt a little bit because he would have made an immediate impact. Soft conference could lead BYU to a BCS game this season, trying to pick up where Hawai'i left off last year.
Schedule Hurdles: Sticking with their history of scheduling Pac-10 teams they will be heading to Washington but more importantly will be hosting UCLA. The only tough conference game they're going to see will be at Air Force in the second to final week of the season.
BearDown All-Americans: OG Ray Feinga, OL Dallas Reynolds.
16. (16) ASU Sun Devils
Despite the movement everywhere else (except #6) ASU stays right where they were. Everyone knew you couldn't write them off entering into the Erickson era, but no one was expecting BCS talk in Tempe in October. It was one of their best starts of the last decade. Unfortunately, they probably won't be as successful. They should still be a very successful team in 08. Sure the Scum Devils should be the #2 team in the Pac-10 but they're losing RB Ryan Torain and Incoming RB Ryan Bass won't likely make an immediate impact in Tempe. We saw a lot of ASU's weaknesses come out in their Holiday Bowl loss to Texas, beaten in almost every facet of the game. Rudy Carpenter has grown over the last 4 years, but it has been too slow of progress from what was expected out of him in '04. This is his year to make a statement if he wants to play on Sundays.
Schedule Hurdles: The Devils will start out slowly but surely with a soft schedule, but their 4th game against Georgia could be one of the top games of the year. That starts a 5 game stretch where the Devils will have to be playing their best, going on the road to Cal and SC, playing host to Oregon then heading up to Corvallis. If they go 3-2 during that 5 game span, they look to be going to a nice Bowl Game, but won't be in any BCS conversations. Going 5-0 is not very likely.
BearDown All-American: PK: Thomas Webber.
17. (15) Virginia Tech Hokies
Emotions ran high last season in Blacksburg, but the season wasn't what was expected and the crushing loss to Kansas in the Orange Bowl didn't help. They've got Dual quarterbacks, led by starter Glennon. And it's not a QB Controversy. It's a carousel and it's a good thing for the Hokies right now. If you disagree, go ask Tebow and Leak after the '07 BCS game. RB Brendan Ore will shoulder the load of the rushing game, unless back-up QB Taylor sparks the running game with scrambles. Unfortunately their 4 top receivers are gone. As I said before, that's 2000 yards and 15 TDs (or 1 Michael Crabtree) that they have to replace. 6 of their 11 Defensive starters have gone away too. Luckily they play in the ACC and it's a good year to rebuild in the ACC.
Schedule Hurdles: Road games to Nebraska and Florida State and a home game against Virginia look to be the only possible struggles the Hokies face and those all seem attainable. They should be comfortable, close at times, until meeting Clemson in the ACC Championship.
BearDown All-Americans: Zero, they lost too much talent, but it's possible that Tyrod Taylor makes some noise going into the '09 season in much the same way Double D-Bow did in Florida.
18. (21) Tennessee Volunteers
Another big jumper in today's reset the Vols jump up 3 spots. Tennessee's season can be summed up in three words. Crompton, Foster, and points. They are the offensive hope of the Volunteers '08 success. Some offseason problems were around last season and the early offseason but those have gone into the distant memory of the Tennessee faithful. Tennessee needs, absolutely NEEDS to tighten up the Defense even more so than Wisconsin. Tennessee's woes were on the defensive side of the ball last season giving up 23 PPG. Bottom line, Tennessee could be a surprise to many this season or could be out of the Top 25 by week 6, possibly earlier. They hit a rough spot in the SEC schedule and need to escape as unscathed as possible to vie for a top tier bowl game. BCS is pretty much out of the picture in Knoxville.
Schedule Hurdles: Mid season stack up of Florida, at Auburn, and at Georgia, then a lesser test against S. Carolina a couple weeks later. No one wants to run through three of the Top Ten in a 3 week span.
BearDown All-American: OL Anthony Parker.
19. (17) Oregon Ducks
I know what you are thinking. They barely finished in the Top 25 last season, No Dixon, No Stewart, and Sophomore Quarterback with 2 games under his belt. How can they be in the Top 20. How did they possibly move UP in the rankings from last season. Well I took all of that into account and that's why they're 19 instead of 17 this go around, but guess what, they're still a Top 20 team. Especially when that Sophomore QB with 2 games of experience is Justin Roper, who set a record for TD passes (4) against South Florida in the Sun Bowl, threw 30/55, 324 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT and QB Ratings of 118.78 and 151.07. Eugene is excited about this guy for sure. Jeremiah Johnson will be back after missing 7 games last season. The Defense will be lead by Patrick Chung but will need to work well together in the interior.
Schedule Hurdles: Games at Purdue and home against Boise State highlight the non-conference schedule.
BearDown All-Americans: OL Max Unger, LB Jerome Boyd, DB Patrick Chung.
20. (19) Penn State Nittany Lions
They slipped one spot, and I'm not sure where they will be come August. They've had some off-field issues, more than their share. The Ghost of JoePa is in his last contract year. There will be an obscene amount of media questions and other issues interfering week in and out for these guys. They've been passed by by Wisconsin, but they're not out of anything yet. They face the Buckeyes and Badgers and wins in both of those games will skyrocket them up the charts. Morelli, his leadership, and 2600 yards are gone but luckily for Penn State so too is his 2:1 TD to INT ratio. They have kept a good portion of the rest of the team in place though and their defense is strong.
Schedule Hurdles: Non-Conference should be a cake walk with only visiting Oregon State being worthy of a little worry, but the JoePas should get by them. With Home games against Illinois and Michigan and Road games against Wisconsin and Ohio State being the true tests the Big Eleven could be a mess this year and they may all beat up on each other.
BearDown All-Americans: KR A.J. Wallace, LB Sean Lee.
21. (20) Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois (pronounced Ill-i-noy not Ill-i-noise, alright?) surprised everyone last year, including Ron Zook and company. Juice is back and he's pretty dangerous. Eddie McGee is too. Mendenhall is not. That one will definitely hurt the Men from Champaign, they relied on Mendenhall especially when Juice's inconsistency takes over. If Juice can work on the interceptions and get more accurate with his passing, they will be poised to make more noise in the Big Eleven for a second straight year. Zook is, and has always been, a great recruiter. He and Williams will be the leaders (one on the other off the field). They will be leading a lot of young, raw, talent out to the field. If they can finish in the Top 25 consider it a good year for the Illini since it's potentially a rebuilding year. This has all the makings of the one year away team if Juice returns for his Senior year.
Schedule Hurdles: Labor Day weekend and "The Arch Rivalry" game with Mizzou will be a big challenge and set the tone for 2009. After that it's clear sailing until they play the rest of the Big Eleven.
BearDown All-American: DB Vontae Davis.
22. (UR) Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The first of 2 newcomers to my Top 25 list. I don't have a whole lot of reasons for this one. I just think they could be one of those potential spoiler teams. They've been above average the last 2 years and are looking for a 3rd straight winning season. Again, the ACC is pretty weak and so too is their schedule. They have some very talented players on this year's roster, guys who could be in the Top 25 in almost every position. They are going to be one of those quiet teams. No one will be jumping onto the scene in Heisman talks, but they're going to compile at least 8 but more likely 10 regular season wins. Weak Schedule in their favor big time in '08.
Schedule Hurdles: Hosting Mississippi in week one won't be the easiest game of the season, but shouldn't be too tough. They go to Florida State and Miami but I think Wake has the edge against both of them. The true test is Clemson, and the Tigers are coming to Winston-Salem.
BearDown All-Americans: None, sorry Deacon fans.
23. (25) Fresno State Bulldogs
Lookout WAC. Traditional WAC powers (of the last few years) Boise State and Hawai'i are going to slip down and Fresno State will be the new "Leader of the WAC". Tim Brandstater will have the stage to show those on the west coast his talents, and RB Ryan Matthews looks to build on a outstanding Freshman season. 16 starters return from the 9-4 team.
Schedule Hurdles: The Bulldogs hopes at a Top 25 season are going to be on the line in week 2 with a visiting Wisconsin. UCLA a couple weeks later won't be the easiest of games, but from there on out they're in conference play and should hold up against most other WAC teams. Even if they drop one or possibly both of the above games, dozing through the WAC could leave them ending near where they started the season, bottom of the Top 25.
BearDown All-American: KR A.J. Jefferson.
24. (24) South Carolina Gamecocks
The last of the 3 teams that didn't move in the last 6 months the Gamecocks sit tight in the rear of the Top 25. (Please don't make the obvious gay joke out of the last sentence, I beg you). They went 6-6 last season, but finished 0-5 in the competitive SEC, and pretty much gave up at the end of the season. I don't see Spurrier letting that happen again this season. They WILL upset one of the Top 25 teams in October or November. Potentially at the end of the season when they face Florida and Clemson back to back. More than likely though expect a tough game, at home, versus the Volunteers. Spurrier is a top recruiter and some of these kids are going to take the field this year. Much like Illinois this could a team that's a year away who just need a little experience.
Schedule Hurdles: One of the toughest schedules we'll see full of names like Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Florida and Clemson gives lots of opportunites for The Upset, possibly more than 1.
BearDown All-Americans: DE Eric Norwood, DB Captain Munnerlyn.
25. (UR) Pittsburgh Panthers
Narrowly missing out in my last Top 25 list, they were the number 1 alternate. Well this time around they're here. Namely on the abilities Lesean McCoy. Kid is an going to make a name for himself outside of the Pittsburgh general area. He will be mentioned in the same sentence as the Heisman at one point, probably around Week 5 and potentially he could be at the New York Athletic Club striking the pose. Losing Maurice Williams really hurts the Panthers so we'll have to see what develops. A soft schedule and soft Big East will allow for Pitt to move onto some radars come bowl season.
Schedule Hurdles: At South Florida and At Notre Dame could be hiccups that bring Pitt down before the big Showdown against West Virginia that just might determine the Big East Champ at the end of November.
BearDown All-Americans: RB LeSean McCoy, LB Scott McKillop.
Fell out of Top 25: Michigan and Virginia
Keep an eye on: South Florida, Arizona, Cal, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Bama.
More after the jump...
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
2008 College Football Top 25 Preseason Rankings
*UPDATE* - This has since been updated. Click the "Top 25" at the bottom of this article for the most recent versions.
Some might say I'm crazy, I think I'm just informed. I released my Top 25 Heisman Candidates 3 days after the 2007 Winner was announced, and 2 days after Double D-Bow finished Thanking God and his acceptance speech. So the question remains, why has it taken me so long to put up my Top 25. The BCS Title game was weeks ago. I apologize for the delay and without further adieu, here it is your 2008 Top 25 team in College Football. In the interest of full disclosure I should tell you that it is rather extensive...and very long so make sure you're comfortable.
1. Georgia: They are tops among teams returning major talent. Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno are top 10 Heisman Candidates in my book and look to cause some serious damage to opposing teams. And their Defense? They held a Hawaii team that averaged 46.16 PPG to only 10 pts, 7 of which coming late in the 4th quarter by a (keep a look out for this kid next year) Tyler Graunke TD pass. If they can stay healthy and avoid some of the offensive stalls (S. Carolina game last year Stafford was 19/44 passing) they are looking at the title game.
Schedule Hurdles: September 20 at Arizona State will be the first major test, both should be unbeaten when they meet in Tempe. Then of course the late season SEC match-ups at LSU and Auburn, Home against Tennessee and the Cocktail Party in Jacksonville vs. Florida.
2. Oklahoma: Bradford excelled last season, and he happened to be a True Freshman starting at the Quarterback for a Major College Football team. The loss of Malcolm Kelly as Bradford's target won't be easy to take, but for a QB who threw for 3121 yards and 36 TDs last season, I think it might be something they're able to overcome. Juaquin Iglesias was the team's top receiver last year, though less explosive than Kelly, and Fiesta Bowl standout (4 rec. 129 yds, TD) Quentin Chaney should step up. Also available, especially in the Red Zone is Jermaine Gresham, the 6'5" TE wrangled 11 TDs on 37 receptions. Where's Denny Green to tell us that all he does is catch Touchdowns. The Defense loses some key players, especially in the secondary, but this is Oklahoma, Bob Stoops does Defense and he does it well. Now only if he could win a Bowl Game.
Schedule Hurdles: September 6 Home vs. Cincinnati could be a hiccup and then of course the Texas game in early October (Dallas). They will also get Texas Tech and Kansas at home this year.
3. USC: One of the only things that could stand in USC's way this season is all of the talk surrounding Coach Pete Carroll listening to offers at the next level. Distractions of this caliber are rarely good for a program. Mark Sanchez and Mitch Mustain are both highly capable Trojan leaders and as I mentioned during the Rose Bowl, Joe McKnight scares the hell out of me and Staffon Johnson performed admirable last season at RB. They're Offensive backfield looks good, really good. They're losing a couple key offensive linemen but due to injuries last season they learned how to play without them a little bit and this year's starters got a little more game experience. You can never say enough about game experience especially on the Offensive Line, the game moves so fast. One of the biggest gaps to fill receiving, with the loss of Mackey Award winning Tight End Fred Davis. But they have some young talent ready and waiting as well as Arkansas transfer Damian Williams. Defensively they lose Sedrick Ellis (Whose draft stock is rising and I predicted him 4th before all of the increased focus) and they lose LB Keith Rivers, but should be able to contain and outscore their opponents.
Schedule Hurdles: Day 1 - January is basically a Schedule Hurdle. SC in my mind is playing one of if not the toughest schedule of anyone. They start @ Virginia, then Home for Ohio State then the next 7 games of Conference play present some challenges including Saturday October 25 in Tucson. Homecoming for Arizona. If you are unaware of my stance on playing the Kitty Kats at homecoming read this, (I was subsequently right of course) as well as look at the picture on the right side of the screen UA 52 UCLA 14 from a couple years ago, yet another homecoming upset. It's what we do, we dismantle top teams in October and then rush the field.
4. Florida: They got Double D-Bow trying to win back to back Bronze Stiff-Arms. They're leading rusher is also trying to win the BSA, of course that would be D-Bow as well. Which leads to my major concern with the Florida program. Their leading rushers were their QB and a WR. In fact D-Bow and WR Percy Harvin had 1559 of the teams 2602 yards and 29 of 39 rushing TDs. Harvin will be back and actually at this moment of thought has just replaced Ryan Mallet on my 2008 Heisman Candidate list. With Harvin and D-Bow making up all three parts of a triple threat offense, and USC transfer Emmanuel Moody waiting in the wings things look good for Florida offense. Defensively they should be better than last season (9 out of 11 starters last season were first-year starters) and experience should make them a step quicker and smarter.
Schedule Hurdles: The test for their Defense will come in week one vs. Hawaii, just because they lost Jones and Brennan, don't count out Hawaii, Graunke put up 10 TDs as a back-up last season. They get LSU and S. Carolina at home but travel to Tennessee and of course the World's Largest Cocktail party in J-Ville vs. GA.
5. The Ohio State University: Biggest loss might be in prospected 1st rounder DE Vernon Gholston. But the biggest off-season acquisition for Ohio State came in the form of James Laurinaits sticking around another year. QB Todd Boeckman and RB Chris "Beanie" Wells could be finalists for the BSA and should lead this offense well. The defense should be able to overcome the loss of Gholston and actually might be able to improve in the off-season. This is a team that wasn't supposed to accomplish what it did last season and was motivated to get back. Tressel might be able to push them into the BCS for an unprecedented 3rd straight appearance. Hopefully the tougher non-conference schedule this year and an improved Big Eleven will make for tougher tests and better play heading into it.
Schedule Hurdles: OSU will not only be playing USC but will be traveling out West on September 13 (which 4Real and I may be attending) to do it. They will follow that up with a trip back to the Horseshoe to play the Trojans again, this time the Trojans of Troy who had a moderately successful 2007 8-4 run, with a Bowl loss to FAU. As for Big Eleven play they'll sidestep Wisconisin but they will go on the road to Champaign to try and avenge the loss to the Illini last year. They will also be at home against Penn State and Michigan.
6. Mizzou: Double D attack of Daniel and Derrick Washington will have to make this a strong offensive team heading into '08, it looked more promising when Tony Temple was appealing his redshirt status for another season at Mizzou, but according to the AP yesterday, Temple has dropped his appeal and will not return to Missouri for a redshirt Sr. Season. Missouri still has Maclin as a target for Daniel but will miss TE target Martin Rucker. Offense should not be a problem with 2 Heisman worthy candidates in Daniel and Maclin and 10 defensive starters. Their incoming recruiting class isn't too bad so far either.
Schedule Hurdles: Ready to make a run from day one Mizzou plays host to Illinois in most likely the most competitive week one match-up we'll see in '08. Their Big XII schedule is pretty weak, other than a road trip to Texas and the neutral site Border Showdown with Kansas, which could allow for another trip to the Big XII Championship and a BCS bid, which they narrowly missed out on last year.
7. LSU: Defending champs lose a little ground, but more importantly lose a lot of talent. Offensive trio of Flynn, Terry Bradshaw's 2nd cousin Jacob Hester, and top WR prospect Early Doucet all are draft bound. They also lost thier Top DT, LB, and DB in prospected #1 pick and all everything Award Winner Glenn Dorsey, Ali Highsmith, and Thorpe Award runner-up (to Antoine Cason) Craig Steltz. They also will be losing D Coordinator Bo Pelini to Nebraska. These are MAJOR gaps to fill but Ryan Perrilloux might be able to eclipse what Flynn did judging by some of his 2007 bright spots. Keiland Williams should step up and get some good yardage and WRs Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd should be nice targets for Perrilloux. A lot of things will have to fall into place perfectly to see LSU trying to repeat.
Schedule Hurdles: The Tigers face Troy in week 2 but it shouldn't be too difficult. The month of October could be a lot to overcome for these guys going on the Florida and South Carolina and then seeing Georgia in Baton Rouge. If they make it through that 3 game stretch without a loss, they should definitely be looking at a top BCS game and the SEC championship.
8. Texas: Colt McCoy was born and bred to be a Texas QB, and going into his Junior Season it's time to prove it. The Longhorns have been successful compared to most other teams in the last few years but not for Texas standards. Colt's turnovers, 18 INT in 2007 and 4 Fumbles in the Holiday Bowl (1 lost, 1 converted into a TX TD) are becoming a problem in Austin that needs to be resolved for success. Mack Brown is a damned good coach, and he wants to prove that his BCS win over USC a couple years ago was not only because of Vince Young (even though Vince did single handedly defeat the Trojans in one of the most amazing College Football performances ever.) Losing Jamaal Charles and Jermichael Finley will be tough for Texas to overcome, meaning more pressure on the shoulders of McCoy. This season will revolve completely around McCoy. A Heisman worth campaign should lead the team to a top record and possibly to the Big XII Championship.
Schedule Hurdles: Oct.11 Texas meets Oklahoma in Dallas for the Red River Shootout. A win there catapults this team into the driver's seat in the Big XII but tough road tests against Texas Tech and Kansas could end BCS chances in November.
9. West Virginia: We are entering into the Bill Stewart era in Morgantown and WVU is ready. The Loss of Slaton will not be easy to overcome, but Pat White coming back solidifies this offense and Noel Devine will be looking to impress but they won't have top Full Back Owen Schmitt back there to help carry the load. Bill Stewart did a nice job of focusing and preparing the players for the Fiesta Bowl, but will he be able to do it for an entire season. When WVU loses will comparisons be made to the Rodriguez led team of 2007. The loss of leading Receiver Darius Raynaud is not easy to overcome. 8 seems high for WV but the Big East doesn't look to be as competitive as last year so they should be able to have a pretty nice record.
Schedule Hurdles: Auburn in week one will be a daunting task and the difference between starting the season in the Top 15 and ending the season in the Top 15. A win almost ensures a bowl game since the rest of the schedule is rather soft and the only other hiccups are the rest of the Big East which WV looks to be distancing itself from.
10. Clemson: Someone from the ACC has to stand out and with the Hurricanes playing like the Orange Bowl looks it's not going to be Miami. Tommy Bowden has been making strides each year and '08 looks to be the year that he makes it into the Top 10 and possibly heading to a BCS game. Most of their Offensive weapons will be back, but most of their offensive line will not. That looks to be a serious spot for concern. It looks like most of the defensive starters will be back for '08 as well. And Top Recruit 5 Star DeQuan Bowers should make an immediate impact on the Defensive Line, plus he's a December Graduate which means he will have Spring Ball to learn a lot of the Defense. It's still early for some recruits but this is definitely one of the top recruiting classes in the country. 2008 will be a good year for Clemson, 2009 might be THE year for the Tigers.
Schedule Hurdles: S. Carolina at the end of November could be a good late season match-up, but the Tigers look to be the cream of the ACC crop. They'll have to go against Virginia, Florida State, and Wake which won't be walkaway victories but Clemson should be able to walkaway with the W.
11. Auburn: The Tigers had a good 2007 season which culminated in an overtime win against Clemson and an 8-4 record. The biggest questions surrounding Auburn's 2008 campaign are centered around replacing QB Brandon Cox with Sophomore Kodi Burns. This could be promising for Auburn with Cox's 13 INTs last season overshadowing his 9 TDs and 2000 yards as well as Burns' mobility. The Tigers also return top rushers Ben Tate and Brad Lester and top receivers Rodgeriqus Smith and Montez Billings. The even bigger questions though aren't suiting up in the fall. The coaching carousel went through Jordan Hare Stadium this off season with both Offensive and Defensive Coordinators leaving. Auburn stole away Troy's Tony Franklin to attempt to install the Spread in Alabama.
Schedule Hurdles: They start September on the Road up to Morgantown and the rest of September doesn't look much easier playing host to LSU and Tennessee. Wins in those games could mean that the November 15 game hosting Georgia could be one of the best games of 2008.
12. Wisconsin: If P.J. Hill can stay healthy he'll have the bulk of the carries for a Wisconsin team looking to improve. If he can't do it Smith and Brown proved they can filling in for Hill last season. Transfer Allan Evridge will be looking to get some PT replacing departed Tyler Donovan. TE Travis Beckum (no relation to Posh and Becks) will be returning and looking to add on to his two previous 900+ yd receiving seasons. The defense is going to have to prove it's muster in the Big Eleven and shut some teams down, relying on your offense in a shoot-out is typically not the way to win in the NCAA. They allowed over 21 PPG last season.
Schedule Hurdles: An early match-up with Fresno State is crying out for Fresno to have their first big win of the season and Wisconsin needs to hold up to have a successful 2008. Playing Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Illinois in a 5 week span doesn't bode well for a team new to the pressure of Top 25, but luckily only Michigan is on the road during that stretch.
13. Texas Tech: This record setting offense is ready to show it's serious firepower. Unlike Wisconsin, this is a team that can play a shootout and win. They put up at LEAST 31 pts every single game last season and were over 40 8 of 12 games. Harrell's back and with his 5700 yds passing, and he's looking at 6000 this year potentially. Freshman phenom Michael Crabtree will be a Sophomore, and he will be double-teamed every game, but still could haul in 2000 yds receiving. RB Shannon Woods is back to help in the Red Zone (8 TDs last season). Plus the 5 guys who limited Harrell's time on the turf are all returning aiming to drop those sacks down from 16. As I mentioned the defense is more of an afterthought here, but they will be strong on D returning 8 Starters.
Schedule Hurdles: Late season Big XII contests look to be in the way going to Kansas in October, hosting Texas the following week, and heading to Oklahoma on the 15th of November.
14. Kansas: Surprised everyone in the world with their run last season losing once in the regular season. Of course they played one of the weakest schedules in all of College Football so when they beat Va. Tech in the Orange Bowl they opened some eyes. QB Todd Reesing will be returning and looking to improve on last season's coming out party in which he threw for 33 TD and 7 INT. They are losing leading rusher Brandon McAnderson, but back-up Jake Sharp fared well last season, and Reesing isn't afraid to use his legs either. On Defense 9 of 11 starters will be returning. People will be gunning for the Jayhawks this year and it's time to show if last year was a fluke or not.
Schedule Hurdles: Their non-conference doesn't get much harder than last season but they will be playing at South Florida in Mid-September. This year they drew the tough road through the Big XII having to visit Oklahoma and end the season with back to back home games against Texas and Mizzou.
15. VT: VT is looking to rebound off a slightly down emotional 2007 season and loss in the Orange Bowl. Starting QB Glennon is back, and dual threat back-up Tyrod Taylor is too. RB Brendan Ore will be looking for his first 1000 yd season in his Sr. yr. The biggest hit felt in Blacksburg is the loss of their Top 4 receivers, that's about 2000 yds and 15 TDs from last season that won't be back, or the equivalent of 1 Michael Crabtree. They're losing 6 starting Defensive standouts including LB Xavier Adibi.
Schedule Hurdles: This season is a good year to have to rebuild a little bit. Road games to Nebraska and Florida State and a home game against Virginia look to be the only possible major struggles the Hokies face, at least until possibly meeting Clemson in the ACC Championship.
16. Arizona State: Surprised many last season firing out of the gates to one of their best starts in the last decade, but 2008 doesn't look to repeat such success. Sure Scum Devils are among the top 3-4 teams in the Pac-10 but they're losing RB Ryan Torain and Incoming backstabber/RB Ryan Bass won't likely make an immediate impact in Tempe. We saw a lot of ASU's weaknesses come out in their Holiday Bowl loss to Texas, beaten in almost every facet of the game. The bright spot is the return of QB Rudy Carpenter for his Sr. Season, Keegan Herring will likely become the every down back and most of the receiving corps will still be around. The defense will get hit, but it should be able to recover for a successful season. Rather than being disappointed with a Holiday Bowl berth as they were last year, it looks as if the Devils should be excited for the bid.
Schedule Hurdles: The Devils will start out slow but their 4th game against Georgia could be one of the top games of the year. That starts a 5 game stretch where the Devils will have to be playing their best, going on the road to Cal and SC, playing host to Oregon then heading up to Corvalis.
17. Oregon: No Dixon, No Stewart, how could the Ducks possibly be # 17 especially after finished 23/24 in the polls last season. Well unless the Sun Bowl was a mirage, incoming QB Justin Roeper is ready to heal the wounds in Eugene of the what could have been 2007 squashed on the 37 yard-line at Arizona Stadium in Tucson. Jeremiah Johnson should be ready to go this fall after rehabbing his ACL injury that kept him out of the last 7 games last season. They're going to have to shore up their defensive interior to compete, but I think they've got the talent to do it. The return of Safety Patrick Chung should help the Oregon defense immensely.
Schedule Hurdles: Games at Purdue and home against Boise State highlight the non-conference schedule for the Ducks who then must go through the top to bottom improved Pac-10.
18. BYU: Quite simply they've been making noise, and are finally ready to be heard. After back to back double digit win seasons and bowl berths they are ready to get some recognition from day one. The defense was impacted a little bit but the offense will remain almost perfectly in tact. Expect incoming True Freshmen Uona Kaveinga to make an immediate impact in Provo. In another case of mid-major supremacy don't be surprised to see BYU going to another bowl this year and getting a little more attention.
Schedule Hurdles: Sticking with their history of scheduling Pac-10 teams they will be heading to Washington but more importantly will be hosting UCLA. The only tough conference game they're going to see will be at Air Force in the second to final week of the season.
19. Penn State: The Nittany Lions are ready for 2008 and should be competitive within the Big Eleven. The things separating them from OhSt and Wisc are minimal and a couple wins in those games would move the JoePas higher in the Top 25 for sure. They lost QB Anthony Morelli who was a good team leader and QB and as much as they'll miss his 2651 yds they won't miss his 2:1 TD to INT ratio. Daryll Clark will have the pressure on him since he will be leading a team where almost every other starter has been there before and he hasn't . The defense will be key for the '08 JoePas.
Schedule Hurdles: Non-Conference should be a cake walk with only visiting Oregon State being worhty of a little worry, but PSU should get by them. With Home games against Illinois and Michigan and Road games against Wisconsin and Ohio State being the true tests.
20. Illinois: Juice Williams is back, so is Eddie McGee. Rashard Mendenhall is not. If Juice can cut the INTs, a lot, they should be able to adjust. Especially with the Rose Bowl defeat showing us how much they relied on Mendenhall. Illinois can continue to build on last season's success and Zook's coaching or fall back down to middle of the Big Eleven. Zook is, and always has been a great recruiter and last season's Rose Bowl run has helped him immensely. Williams will be the Veteran leader, and will be leading a lot of young, raw, talent out to the field. If they can finish in the Top 25 consider it a good year for the Illini since it's potentially a rebuilding year. And look out for 2009, Juice's Senior year. This year's Illini could be the definition of one year away.
Schedule Hurdles: Labor Day weekend and "The Arch Rivalry" game with Mizzou will be a big challenge and set the tone for 2009. After that it's clear sailing until they play the rest of the Big Eleven.
21. Tennessee: Erik Ainge is gone and the success of the 2008 Volunteers lies on the shoulders of Jonathon Crompton or one of two back-up Sophomore's who never saw the field last year. There aren't any QB's coming in yet in this year's recruits so the position is a little thin. RB Arain Foster had a successful scope job last week and will be ready by spring. RB Montario Hardesty isn't a scrub either and will get help carry the load that will be ground heavy. Lucas Taylor will be a down field target at times and he will lead the receiving corps. Two question marks are the recent off field issues that have been facing the program and whether or not their defense will be able to tighten up a little bit and limit the PPG (after allowing 23 last season).
Schedule Hurdles: Mid season stack up of Florida, at Auburn and at Georgia, then a lesser test against S. Carolina a couple weeks later.
22. Virginia: Cavaliers Defense limiting Texas Tech to 31 points was no small feat. It was the fewest points the Rebs put on the board all season. The only major loss from that defense is top pick Chris Long. Most of their offense is coming back as well as getting back top receiver Kevin Ogletree who missed 2007 with a knee injury as well as RB Cedric Peerman who had 585 yds in 5.5 games. Especially in the weak ACC Virginia could surprise and contend with Clemson and Va Tech.
Schedule Hurdles: Clemson at home and at Va Tech look to be the only real challenges. Unless Florida State or Wake step-up.
23. Michigan: The Rodriguez era is officially beginning and TENTATIVELY I'm putting Michigan in here, of course they don't have a QB right now but are heavily recruiting Terrell Pryor, the nation's top recruit. On record in more than a few places is the already possible questionaly recruiting in Ann Arbor with the pictures of Pryor and a Corvette surfacing. With Mallet gone it really is Pryor or nothing in Ann Arbor. No Henne, No Manningham, no Arrington, no Hart, no Long, and some defensive losses to might have Michigan falling out of the Top 25 early, and not returning at all. Already the pre-season no.5 in the Big Eleven. This could be worse than last year's loss to Appy State. It's a clean state for Coach Rod, we'll have to see if leaving Morgantown was worth it.
Schedule Hurdles: Luckily for the Wolverines they don't play games on the road ever with Notre Dame the master of futility Michigan officially doesn't play a challenging out of conference game but Wisconsin, Illinois, and Penn State in a 4 week span has the Wolverines lucky to be 2-2 when it's done.
24. S. Carolina: Could be a good season for the Gamecocks and Spurrier after last seasons 6-6 (0-5 in the last 5) epic collapse look for a resurgent 2008 team. Will be overshadowed by the rest of the SEC but as a curse also being a blessing, this gives them ample opportunity to tumble one of the SEC golliaths and move up the rankings. That 6-1 record last year was not a complete fluke and they just need to avoid the complacency. We all know Spurrier is a hell of a recruiter and we'll see more of his recruits take the field this year.
Schedule Hurdles: One of the toughest schedules we'll see full of names like Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Florida and Clemson gives lots of opportunites for upsets.
25. Fresno State: Tim Brandstater will have the stage to show those on the west coast his talents, and RB Ryan Matthews looks to build on a outstanding Freshman season. We have had a WAC team go to a BCS game in the past 2 seasons. It's not going to be Boise State or Hawaii. Most likely it won't be Fresno State either, but they look to be the class of the WAC right now. And even though it's a mid-major, being the best in a conference usually gets some votes and garners some attention.
Schedule Hurdles: Tough opener at UCLA could detour the Bulldogs hopes at a Top 25 season, and Wisconsin visiting a couple weeks later only makes it harder. From there on out they're in conference play and should hold up against most other WAC teams.
Just missing the cut are Pitt, South Florida, Wake, Arizona, Cal, and UCLA (with the addition of Norm Chow).
That's it for now feel free to Comment or e-mail me if you think I'm wrong. These will likely change after Spring Ball but who knows.
*UPDATE* - This has since been updated here.
More after the jump...
